Self-contained review view for Agbaku Ranch at Agbaku Village, Moro Local Government Area, near Ilorin, Kwara State. Corrected formula-driven workbook. The XLSX preserves the original supplied production base case and excludes external workbook links and the prior legacy debt schedule.
LocationAgbaku Village, Moro Local Government Area, near Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria
Initial Loan Request₦275m
Sponsor Contribution₦60m non-cash land equity
Projection Period10 years
Debt Terms7 years, 13% rate, 2-year moratorium
Total CAPEX2,832,829,190
Year 10 Revenue5,256,926,950
Year 10 Milk Volume1,554,949 liters
Correction note: This HTML now shows the full core assumptions, full annual assumptions, and full production table. It no longer starts with shortened reviewer assumptions that looked like new assumptions.
Sensitivity Dashboard
Scenario sandbox: These controls simulate changes to assumption values for testing only. They do not overwrite the base tables below or the XLSX file. Use them to see whether cash, DSCR, EBITDA, and funding pressure still hold under stress.
Revenue And EBITDA
Scenario RevenueScenario EBITDABase Revenue
Ending Cash And DSCR
Ending CashDSCR1.20x floor
Year
Revenue
EBITDA
CFO
Debt Service
DSCR
Ending Cash
Status
Core Assumptions
Reference: ASSUMPTIONS sheet rows 4-33 in the XLSX.
Assumption
Value
Comment / Use
ModelYears
10
Projection period
Phase1Debt
275,000,000
Initial loan request
LoanRate
0.13
Annual interest rate
TenorYears
7
Debt tenor
MoratoriumYears
2
Debt-service moratorium
TaxRate
0.34
Income tax rate
SponsorEquity_Land_120_Acres
60,000,000
Non-cash land equity
SponsorEquityYr1_Cash
0
Cash equity contribution in Year 1
SponsorEquityYr2_Cash
0
Cash equity contribution in Year 2
AR_Days
30
Receivables days
Inv_Days
45
Inventory days
AP_Days
60
Payables days
MinDSCR
1.20
Debt covenant floor
InitialCows
80
Initial herd reference
CalfSurvival
0.95
Herd model reference
FemaleRatio
0.50
Herd model reference
MaleSellRate
0.95
Herd model reference
MaleSellStartYear
2
Herd model reference
CowCullY6Y7
0.50
Herd model reference
CowCullY8Plus
0.30
Herd model reference
LactationRate
0.85
Herd model reference
MilkingDays
305
Full-year milking days
ManureBagsPerCow
182
Herd model reference
CarcassCow_kg
250
Culled cow carcass assumption
CarcassYoungMale_kg
200
Young male carcass assumption
AcrePrice_NGN
500,000
Land acquisition price per acre
TotalNoAcres
120
Initial land reference
CropYield_NGN_Per_Acre
1,500,000
Crop revenue assumption
Year1WetDayFactor
0
Year 1 wet-day ramp factor
Year2WetDayFactor
0.50
Year 2 wet-day ramp factor
Annual Assumptions
Reference: ASSUMPTIONS sheet rows 39-47. Rows 45-47 preserve the original supplied production base figures.
Line Item
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Milk_Yield_L_Day_Cow
0
6
6
9
12
14
16
18
19
20
Milk_Price_NGN_L
1,000
1,200
1,200
1,500
1,500
3,000
3,000
3,000
3,000
3,000
Beef_Price_NGN_Kg
6,800
6,800
6,800
7,200
8,200
9,400
9,400
9,400
9,400
9,400
Manure_Price_NGN_Bag
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
Crop_Acres
38
30
24
18
12
5.50
0
0
0
0
Crop_Yield_NGN_Acre
1,500,000
1,500,000
1,500,000
1,500,000
1,500,000
1,500,000
0
0
0
0
Milking_Cows_Base
0
68
68
100
133
180
243
255
255
255
Beef_Kg_Base
0
0
0
11,210
14,820
20,140
38,680
43,000
58,990
62,490
Manure_Bags_Base
14,560
18,018
18,018
26,577
35,135
53,390
69,278
89,771
92,296
93,479
Production
Reference: PRODUCTION sheet. Milk liters calculate from yield x wet days x milking cows, while milking cows, beef kg, and manure bags preserve the original supplied base assumptions.
Line Item
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Yield L/day/cow
0
6
6
9
12
14
16
18
19
20
Wet Days Effective
0
152
305
305
305
305
305
305
305
305
Milking Cows
0
68
68
100
133
180
243
255
255
255
Milk Liters
0
62,220
124,440
275,324
485,316
769,454
1,186,743
1,399,938
1,477,208
1,554,949
Beef Kg
0
0
0
11,210
14,820
20,140
38,680
43,000
58,990
62,490
Manure bags
14,560
18,018
18,018
26,577
35,135
53,390
69,278
89,771
92,296
93,479
Crop_Acres
38
30
24
18
12
5.50
0
0
0
0
Operating Inputs
Reference: INPUTS_OPERATING sheet, linked to production and price assumptions.
Reference: EBITDA less tax and working capital, less cash capex, plus debt draw, less debt service.
Line Item
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
CFO
30,975,288
79,373,411
120,955,345
320,429,971
550,902,697
1,556,723,333
2,539,836,589
3,042,110,172
3,314,627,541
3,500,311,405
Cash CAPEX
275,000,000
55,000,000
0
145,000,000
426,000,000
1,074,329,190
797,500,000
0
0
0
Debt Draw
275,000,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Debt Service
0
0
99,836,341
99,836,341
99,836,341
99,836,341
99,836,341
0
0
0
Net Cash Flow
30,975,288
24,373,411
21,119,004
75,593,630
25,066,356
382,557,802
1,642,500,248
3,042,110,172
3,314,627,541
3,500,311,405
Ending Cash
30,975,288
55,348,699
76,467,702
152,061,332
177,127,689
559,685,491
2,202,185,739
5,244,295,910
8,558,923,451
12,059,234,855
Balance Sheet
Reference: Cash, working capital, net PPE, loan balance, equity, retained earnings.
Line Item
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Cash
30,975,288
55,348,699
76,467,702
152,061,332
177,127,689
559,685,491
2,202,185,739
5,244,295,910
8,558,923,451
12,059,234,855
Receivables
4,806,411
9,847,800
15,244,841
42,844,673
71,383,952
206,186,096
322,790,540
378,781,032
410,198,203
432,076,188
Inventory
2,918,096
4,043,811
4,603,769
5,325,099
6,520,276
7,768,846
8,809,758
8,914,357
9,238,967
9,124,891
Net PPE
304,991,119
322,125,096
284,259,072
373,000,191
709,834,168
1,579,271,558
2,061,058,330
1,754,659,387
1,456,117,588
1,157,575,788
Total Assets
343,690,914
391,365,406
380,575,384
573,231,295
964,866,085
2,352,911,990
4,594,844,366
7,386,650,686
10,434,478,208
13,658,011,722
Payables
3,890,795
5,391,749
6,138,358
7,100,131
8,693,702
10,358,461
11,746,344
11,885,810
12,318,623
12,166,522
Loan Balance
310,750,000
351,147,500
296,960,334
235,728,836
166,537,244
88,350,744
0
0
0
0
Total Liabilities
314,640,795
356,539,249
303,098,692
242,828,968
175,230,946
98,709,205
11,746,344
11,885,810
12,318,623
12,166,522
Share Capital
60,000,000
60,000,000
60,000,000
60,000,000
60,000,000
60,000,000
60,000,000
60,000,000
60,000,000
60,000,000
Retained Earnings
-30,949,881
-25,173,843
17,476,692
270,402,327
729,635,139
2,194,202,785
4,523,098,022
7,314,764,877
10,362,159,585
13,585,845,201
Total Equity
29,050,119
34,826,157
77,476,692
330,402,327
789,635,139
2,254,202,785
4,583,098,022
7,374,764,877
10,422,159,585
13,645,845,201
Balance Check
0
0
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-0.00
0
0
Ratios
Reference: DSCR, EBITDA margin, and interest coverage.
Line Item
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
DSCR
-
-
1.21x
3.21x
5.52x
15.59x
25.44x
-
-
-
EBITDA Margin
59.5%
72.6%
79.9%
91.7%
93.9%
97.5%
98.2%
98.4%
98.5%
98.6%
Interest Coverage
0.13x
1.22x
2.42x
10.93x
23.71x
103.50x
308.22x
-
-
-
OPEX Appendix
Reference: Recreated from the original workbook OPEX sheet hidden rows 16-126. The XLSX also includes this as a separate OPEX_APPENDIX sheet so the detail can be reviewed without unhiding rows manually.